Have no fear, the pow is here!
This morning a cold front dropped from Canada through the northeast bringing snow showers across Quebec into northern Vermont and the Adirondacks of New York. Some of the resorts faired quite well due to orographic uplift; in this case, air is forced to ascend the slope of a mountain, where it cools to its dewpoint temperature and precipitation forms. These localized heavier accumulations were dropped on Whiteface, NY as well as Smuggler’s notch and Jay Peak over in Vermont. You can always find up to date snow reports at
http://www.skitheeast.net/weather/most_snow to follow the pow to where it is deepest. As this disturbance departs, higher pressure builds in through the evening hours. Clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop off tonight, which is a positive thing, to have cold air in place for the major player that will be moving into the northeast tomorrow.
Credit: NOAA
This Short Range ensemble forecast represents a variety of scenarios for the 850 mb 0C isotherm on Friday at 6 pm, when above freezing air is making its most northward advance. Forecast models use algorithms and an input of surface data to predict atmospheric conditions in the future. Each model may use a different algorithm, resulting in the variety of setups that is represented by each line. As a rule of thumb, if your location is north of the 0C isotherm at this timeframe, you can expect an all snow event. Based on the concentration of lines, the northward most extent of liquid precipitation appears to cut through central New York into southern Vermont off to Coastal Maine. These areas could see a brief mixover, but mostly snow. It is once you get down toward southern New England where it looks to be bad news.
A center of low pressure is currently located over the Ohio River valley and is set to head eastward across central New York as it strengthens and departs off the coast of New England late Friday night into early Saturday. Heavy wet snow associated with this system is falling tonight across southern Michigan and will spread into New York after midnight tonight. The forecast models seem to agree that precipitation will start white across New York and New England. For he Adirondacks and into Northern New England, this is panning out to be an all snow event. Unfortunately, southerly flow on the warm southeast side of the storm will be causing a changeover to sleet, rain, and freezing rain through the day. How far north this warm air reaches depends on the track of the storm, and appears to be somewhere on a parallel in Southern Vermont. The Adirondacks of New York and northern New England should be all snow. As the storm passes, moderate to heavy snowfall will spread through the Whites of New Hampshire and up into Maine and Quebec Friday evening. Winds will increase and shift to the northwest as the low passes by, and induce the classic wraparound effect. These winds bring in colder Canadian air that still has moisture to work with. As a result, some areas previously affected by rain will change back to snow showers. Across the higher terrain, this upslope flow will produce a few more inches through Saturday, which is looking to be a promising pow day.
In general, expect 3 to 8 inches of snow across the Catskills and Berkshires although it will be sloppy. Northern New England can expect up to a foot of new snow, with totals perhaps more, in favored areas of upslope snow along the higher terrain of the greens and whites. Eastern Quebec and the gaspe peninsula look to be in for this dump as well.
This weekend, you will probably want to break out the pow skis and head north to get the goods. Friday will be stormy, and Saturday looks to be the best for some pow turns. Have fun shredding!
