Words: Jeffrey Oliveira and Tim Fater
So, there is a storm on the way. We have been fortunate over the last few weeks to have had numerous snow events which have lured the dedicated out from their autumn abodes. Will this one deliver, too? The answer is, we don’t know. Yet. This is an especially complex system. So where does a lay-person go to find out some answers? How about a nice a mix between the near-useless Weather.com (sorry, Weather.com! I love Jim Cantore, though) and the more sophisticated weather models?
Well, here is a quick-and-dirty run down of that mix. We’ll expand on the sources much more in a full article format in the coming weeks, but for now… Looks like snow then rain then back to snow…can some northern/western peaks with enough elevation escape the rain? Happy hunting.
Precipitation will commence as snow during the morning and early afternoon hours, but gradually transition to a wintry mix as the day progresses and the mercury creeps towards 30 degrees. Snowfall accumulations of 3-5 inches are possible before the transition to warmer forms of precipitation.
It should be noted that there is still a degree of uncertainty with the track of this low pressure system, and even a slight shift in the track to the west or east can create a significant change in the experienced conditions. A track further out to sea will prolong the initial period of pure snowfall, nudging the possible snowfall totals up by as much as a couple of inches. On the other hand, if the low treks a bit further inland than expected, anticipated snowfall amounts would be suppressed, and more rain or even a prolonged period of freezing rain can be expected.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING ALLOWING STEADY RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY BY LATE MORNING. INITIALLY…RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON SATURDAY…THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MOST AREAS.
THE FORECAST FOR JAY PEAK, VERMONT AT 3,858 FT: LAST UPDATED AT 1108 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010 .TODAY…PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING…THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN IN THE MORNING…THEN SNOW OR RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AROUND 36. SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH…DECREASING TO 15 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT…SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. SNOW OR RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT… THEN RAIN OR SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW AROUND 30. SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH. .FRIDAY…SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. RAIN IN THE MORNING…THEN RAIN OR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AROUND 46. TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 34 IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
Looks like we’ve got some snow heading our way this weekend. It’ll start off a little messy today with rain/sleet etc. but it’ll turn to all snow by Saturday and continue through Sunday.
IN CONCLUSION • Rain will engulf the East Coast today. As the rain departs, a blast of chilly air will follow. • As colder air spreads southeastward across the Great Lakes, rain showers are changing to snow showers, and that process will continue as the colder air moves across the Appalachians. Let’s hope for some snow on the back end of the storm